When the new Associated Press college basketball poll is released Monday, Gonzaga is likely to be No. 1.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects the Zags as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament in his latest Bracketology.
Neither of these things should happen for this Gonzaga squad. Not this year. Not with this resume and this schedule.
Many of you who know my opinions and my history covering college basketball, know I’m not anti-mid-major or a major-conference snob. If anything, I’m a small-school sympathizer.
I believe the reason for so many 5-seed vs. 12-seed upsets in the NCAA tournament is each year’s most under-appreciated smaller programs are often 12s, while the over-bloated name schools with flaws wind up as 5s.
I believe the NCAA too often pairs mid-majors against each other early, to the point there’s no way it’s a coincidence. The governing body and selection committee don’t want too many mid-majors advancing.
And I believe winning on the road in any league is impressive.
But, when talking about the No. 1 ranking and a No. 1 seed (which means a top four team), Gonzaga hasn’t come close to earning either.
This isn’t to say that by the end of the NCAA tournament, the Zags won’t have proven differently — and they’ll have their chance.
Right now Gonzaga is being rewarded for an easy schedule — the West Coast Conference is easier than the Missouri Valley (nowhere near the depth), less physical than the MAC or Horizon League — and propped up by the stupidity of my media brethren.
Here’s hoping the selection committee is smarter.
If Gonzaga had run through its competition like UNLV did in the early 90s, then OK, there’d be a solid argument. But the Zags lost to Illinois at home and Butler when the Bulldogs were without their top scorer.
Neither is a shameful loss. Yet, you can’t be No. 1 if you’ve lost to a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad on your home floor and a team that isn’t dominating the Atlantic 10 — not if that’s the best of your schedule, beyond a road win at Oklahoma State.
I respect Gonzaga’s wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU and elsewhere on the road, albeit in a league coaches consider incredibly soft. But there is a difference between gearing up for a challenge every couple of weeks and going through the gauntlet like each of the top teams in the Big Ten.
If Michigan State, for example, followed its impressive win over Michigan win San Francisco and Santa Clara, the Spartans would be No. 1 in the country. We’d never have known Keith Appling was tired or MSU was due for a slump.
Lunardi, the AP pollsters, the selection committee — they should know this.
Just because there isn’t a dominant No. 1 team this year and more deserving No. 1s have slipped up, doesn’t make an undeserving squad that’s ripped through favorable schedule worthy of being No. 1.
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I don’t often find myself in agreement with you, but on this issue I think you’re right on. A more accurate comparison might be with St. Joes from the mid 2000s (when they had both Dalonte West and Jamir Nelson) when they were given a 1 seed. Though I would still say that St. Joes team was better as they only lost once during the regular season and played in a stronger conference. If the Zags want to be a one seed they either should have to go undefeated or play a more challenging non conf schedule.
Graham, I think they are about # 11 in the country, that being said would not MSU love being the #3 seed in a region with #1 Gonzaga?
Hey GoST8go right now Lunardi has VCU set against MSU in a second round matchup. Maybe your spouse prophecy will come true.
Don’t want nothing to do with VCU after watching them destroy Butler today.
So many holes in this argument that I just had to chime in.
1) Schedule- There’s a reason they the Zags play in so many preseason tournaments, it’s the only way they can get a chance at top quality schools. Kentucky stopped scheduling Indiana because they want easier non conference schedules. You think a Kentucky or Duke or Michigan is going to risk losing to a “mid-major”? The softer schedule argument doesn’t work anymore, otherwise you would see the mid majors getting blown out come tournament time. Last couple of years they have been making deep runs, its because they can play.
2) Illinois and Butler- Gonzaga lost to Illinois when the Illini were playing (and shooting) like a top ten team in the country. That’s why they were ranked so high. Illinois has also beaten OSU, IU and Minn. When they are making their shots they are a tough out. Butler won on a last second steal and shot. Not a bad loss at all, especially given Butler’s resume lately. Every potential #1 team/seed has a bad loss or two on their record. Duke just lost to Virginia. Miami lost to Wake Forest. Kansas to TCU. scUm to Penn St. Indiana to Butler and Illinois. Pitt to USF.
3) Who’s better? I keep hearing that there isn’t much difference between a #1 and #2 seed. What 4 or 8 teams deserve to be seeded higher? Indiana most likely. MSU if they win out and do some BTT damage. I doubt any other BIG team has a shot. Duke or Miami. I’d say Florida and Kansas can make a case. But after that I don’t see anyone else more worthy right now.
4) It’s just hard to trust your credibility. You said that Creighton would be a top tier BIG team this year. The same Creighton that has 5 losses in the Mountain Valley. Hard to believe they would only have 5 in the BIG. Unless you think the conferences are about equal depth wise.
Also St. Joe went to the final four in 2004. Seems like that would back up that they were deserving of a #1 seed.
WOW! if you even knew anything about college basketball you wouldn’t argue about Gonzaga not deserving a #1 seed… Big ten teams have losses because they face tough competition game in and game out. Learn your basketball and how to look at what makes a team worthy of a certain seed in the tourny.
Graham. you said you would have an update on shilling this week and to remind you. so whats the update?
That’s just his carrot to you to come back so his useless blog gets hits.
We all know there is no substance to anything he types except what he plagiarizes.
Have to disagree with you on that one Chief
we know who you are, are you still are clueless
The above comment was written as an honest opinion, so is this:
I agree with Cheese-it’s proclamation that the Zags should NOT be ranked #1. But that said, something that he should have added is that rankings at the beginning of March is so much dishwater.
sparty, here is a link to Graham’s story on Gavin Shilling.
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20130302/GW0201/303020012/Findlay-Prep-coach-tells-recruit-Gavin-Schilling-he-d-appreciated-MSU
Please note the care and appreciation that Cheese-it shows those who come to call at this insult to all Spartans, everywhere, his “editor” has to post links in answer to questions posed, he can’t be bothered. Pretty much defines his character, or, better said lack of character.
Sounds like jealously to me Chief.
You effete east coast snobs have become tiresome in your attempts to marginalize Gonzaga. It apparently isn’t enough to have swept a decent WCC conference (if you include teams the caliber of St. Mary’s and BYU in that mix), or to have played through a brutal road tour to emerge 29-2; the best record in NCAA Division I men’s basketball by far (a record some of your snippy little pundits describe as “gaudy”). What is it with you? Do you have some sophomoric need to discredit good programs that aren’t in your immediate little junior high school clique? Inventing terms like “mid-major”? A basketball team/program is either “good” or “not good”; fahgeddabout where it’s based. If you consider where Mark Few has taken the Gonzaga program over the past dozen years, His win/loss record, the conference titles, the NCAA Tournament appearances, and still choose to snub a great program that just happens to be based at a small west coast Catholic school because it isn’t “old school”, then screw you! I hope the Zags kick your silly little asses up between your narrow shoulder blades so hard during the upcoming NCAA Tournament that you’ll think twice about pulling this crap next year. Go Zags!
George, Lansing is not on the east coast of Michigan, much less near any of the places that Spiro Agnew was referring to in that little quote you’re referencing. Also worth remembering that one of the reasons Spiro was upset at the snobs in question was their lordly insistence that he not be flagrantly corrupt.
Gonzaga is a very good program, no one says it isn’t. I don’t see a problem with putting it in the top 10. But it simply doesn’t play the same competition day in and day out that Michigan State does. Or Indiana does. Or Duke does. Or Miami does. As Graham said, the WCC is not strong this year and Gonzaga has been winning, but not blowing out teams. Yelling and shouting won’t change that. It might not necessarily be fair, as most of the major conference teams are, well, reticent to play the Zags. Michigan State is one of the few who play at a “mid-major” program’s gym every year. (This year it was at Bowling Green.)
MSU fans, I think, are pretty high in our appreciation and respect for the Zags and we know Tom Izzo absolutely respects the program. Especially as he’s willing to go play your guys at your place as we did last year. We all know Jud Heathcoate’s connection between the two schools and remember that classic the two teams played in Maui.
Maybe Gonzaga would have the same record if it’d played MSU’s schedule, maybe it would have the same record as MSU. No one can know which team is better until they play each other. But if you’re going to rank teams, you should try to do it using the information available in as intellectually honest a way as possible. It’s really hard to do that other than by looking at a team’s resume.
But, you know, the Zags will have their chance in March to prove everyone wrong or right.
wait.. an AVG margin of victory over 15 pts isn’t beating up your opponents?
Chum: Forgive my frustration. And congratulations on catching my plagiarized Spiro Agnew quote – few of us are old enough to remember that, but some phrases are perfectly descriptive and Spiro invented one. Yes, I know where Lansing is. I realize that you aren’t “east coast”, but there is a bias in the national media toward the leagues you mention out your way. I see it most often associated with the SEC and ACC. Big mid-west teams tend to get lumped in (as historically the Indiana, Kansas, Michigan teams are strong) but West coast teams tend to be downplayed. I’ve watched Gonzaga steadily climb up in the rankings all season, despite a tough loss to Illinois at home (though not a blowout) and a fluke of a loss to Butler (on the road) due to an errant inbound pass by Stockton at the buzzer. Gonzaga’s only two losses were to teams that were nationally ranked at the time. They have certainly played some decent competition since then. One of the frustrations Gonzaga fans have had is that they tend to play only up to the level of their competition. Also Mark Few doesn’t “pile on” as some teams will. Rather, he’ll try to build the depth of his bench when playing lesser teams, and that bench is pretty impressive as a result. You said “No one can know which team is better until they play each other”. I couldn’t agree more. But when I read comments that start with “Gonzaga doesn’t deserve …” it makes my blood boil. And of course, you’re also right about The Dance shaking things out. I just don’t want to see chauvinism trump record when it comes to assigning a seed to Gonzaga. Sorry if my comments came across as abusive. Peace….
Chum: Forgive my frustration. And congratulations on catching my plagiarized Spiro Agnew quote – few of us are old enough to remember that, but some phrases are perfectly descriptive and Spiro invented one.
Yes, I know where Lansing is. I realize that you aren’t “east coast”, but there is a bias in the national media toward the conferences you mention out your way. I see it often connected with the SEC and ACC. Big mid-west teams tend to get lumped in (as historically the Indiana, Kansas, Michigan teams are strong) but west coast teams tend to be downplayed.
I’ve watched Gonzaga steadily climb up in the rankings all season, despite a tough loss to Indiana at home (though not a blowout) and a fluke of a loss to Butler due to an errant inbound pass by Stockton. Gonzaga’s only two losses were to teams that were nationally ranked at the time. They have certainly played some decent competition since then.
One of the frustrations Gonzaga fans have had is that they tend to play only up to the level of their competition. Also Mark Few doesn’t “pile on” as some teams will. Rather, he’ll try to build the depth of his bench when playing lesser teams, and that bench is pretty impressive as a result. You said “No one can know which team is better until they play each other”. I couldn’t agree more. But when I read comments that start with “Gonzaga doesn’t deserve …” it makes my blood boil.
And of course, you’re also right about The Dance shaking things out. I just don’t want to see chauvinism trump record when it comes to assigning a seed to Gonzaga. Sorry if my comments came across as abusive. Peace….
As a Jud thumper who worked building security for Earvin in 79 and a life time student of the game, I just feel you have about the #10 team in the country as do we and with our schedule would be a 3 seed. Certainly no disrespect in that.
Spartan 81 – And no disrespect intended to your great conference. I’m and old UW Husky and remember the many great games Michigan gave us “back in the day”.
I don’t say Gonzaga is the best team in the country right now. but I take exception to anyone saying that they definitely aren’t, based on playing in a “weak conference”. Who knows how strong a given conference is from year to year? Things turn over in a hurry as talent comes and goes. A few out of conference games early on don’t necessarily indicate anything.
If the SEC had a bunch of mediocre teams going into a season, they would spend much of the time knocking each other off within their inter-conference play. Some folks would say “OMG, the SEC is going to be awesome this year; look at how evenly matched their top teams are!” Of course, that would cost them in the polls, but there would be those arguing that they really should be higher ranked but because they’re all so good they’re hurting each other. Implicit in that is the assumption that the SEC is a “stronger conference” by definition. End of story!
Two things are consistent: the quality of the coaching staff and the fact that historically strong programs tent to attract the best talent, on the average. But it’s a numbers game. And recently teams have been recruiting talent internationally. I believe that tends to normalize things.
If I had my way, all conferences would be assumed to be equal going into the NCAA Tournament. I’d throw out the seeding system. I’d throw all the teams into a hat and draw pairs for the first round. I’d continue doing that at each level until, through double elimination, only one team was left standing and that team would likely be the best team in the country. I believe that would be the fair and nondiscriminatory way to run the tournament.
Agreed, from what I have seen this year Indiana has a leg up on everyone due to the explosiveness of Oladipo , after that it is a lot like 2010 there are 8-12 teams who could be #2 on any given night depending on matchups. So you could be # 2, we played lie #2 on occasion but certainly not in the last three games.